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Amazon FRYou paid full price in October. Three weeks later the same item sat at 30% off. Every sale calendar online lists the dates and stops there — none tell you how deep the discount actually goes, so you still cannot judge whether waiting is worth it.
This calendar pairs each date with the discount depth Adobe measured, plus the recurring rule behind every event so it never goes stale. Decide one thing: buy now, or wait.
The Short Answer: When Prices Actually Bottom Out
November is the deepest discount month of the year, and it is not close. Adobe recorded a record $257.8 billion in US online spending between November 1 and December 31, 2025, with Cyber Monday alone taking $14.25 billion and Black Friday $11.8 billion.
But "November is cheapest" is useless without a number attached. Here is what the peak discount actually reached, by category, during that holiday window — measured, not estimated.
| Category | Peak discount off list price | Worth waiting for? |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 30.9% | Yes — the single biggest swing |
| Toys | 29.6% | Yes, if you can hold until late November |
| Apparel | 25.1% | Yes, though end-of-season clearance rivals it |
| Televisions | 24.3% | Yes — or wait for the pre-Super Bowl window |
| Computers | 23.4% | Yes, but back-to-school runs close |
| Sporting goods | 20.3% | Marginal — offseason beats it |
| Appliances | 20.2% | Marginal — holiday weekends match it |
| Furniture | 18.8% | No — buy on the clearance cycle instead |
Peak discount rates: Adobe Analytics, 2025 holiday season recap.
Read the bottom row again. Furniture bottoms out under 19% during the loudest sale event of the year. That is the whole reason a date-only calendar misleads people.
Every Major US Sale Date: 2026 and 2027
Most sale events do not fall on a fixed date — they follow a rule. Learn the rule and you can place any event on any future calendar yourself.
| Event | The rule | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLK Day sales | 3rd Monday of January | Jan 19 | Jan 18 |
| Presidents Day | 3rd Monday of February | Feb 16 | Feb 15 |
| Easter sales | Moves with the lunar calendar | Apr 5 | Mar 28 |
| Memorial Day | Last Monday of May | May 25 | May 31 |
| July 4th sales | Fixed date, July 4 | Sat, Jul 4 | Sun, Jul 4 |
| Labor Day | 1st Monday of September | Sep 7 | Sep 6 |
| Columbus Day | 2nd Monday of October | Oct 12 | Oct 11 |
| Black Friday | Day after the 4th Thursday of November | Nov 27 | Nov 26 |
| Small Business Saturday | Saturday after Thanksgiving | Nov 28 | Nov 27 |
| Cyber Monday | Monday after Thanksgiving | Nov 30 | Nov 29 |
| Christmas clearance | Starts December 26 | Dec 26 | Dec 26 |
Two dates deserve a warning. July 4, 2026 falls on a Saturday, which pushes most retail promotions into the surrounding weekend rather than a Monday holiday. And Amazon sets Prime Day dates itself with no fixed rule — treat it as announced, not predictable.
Month by Month: What Goes On Sale and Why
The reason matters more than the date. Once you know why a retailer is discounting, you can spot the same pattern at any store.
January — Fitness gear, TVs, linens, winter clothing
Two forces collide. Retailers clear leftover winter stock to free floor space, and fitness brands chase resolution buyers. Televisions get marked down ahead of the Super Bowl.
February — Furniture, mattresses, jewelry
Furniture and mattress retailers build their February promotions around Presidents Day weekend. Jewelry prices soften right after Valentine's Day, once the demand that propped them up disappears.
March — Ski gear, winter sports, luggage
End-of-season clearance on anything snow-related. A retailer would rather sell a jacket at cost than warehouse it for eight months.
April — Spring clothing, vacuum cleaners, Easter stock
Easter merchandise collapses the day after the holiday. Spring apparel sees its first real markdown once the new-season buzz fades.
May — Mattresses, grills, patio furniture
Memorial Day opens the outdoor season, so grills and patio sets lead the promotions. Mattress retailers anchor their spring promotions to the same weekend.
June — Tools, hardware, indoor furniture
Father's Day drives tool and hardware promotions. Indoor furniture quietly discounts while shopper attention sits outdoors.
July — Laptops, school supplies, summer clearance
Back-to-school pricing starts far earlier than most shoppers expect. Summer apparel begins clearing while it is still summer, because fall collections ship in August.
August — Laptops, backpacks, outdoor furniture
Peak back-to-school competition on computers and accessories. Patio furniture starts its clearance run as retailers stop reordering.
September — Mattresses, grills, lawn equipment, last season's phones
Labor Day repeats the Memorial Day playbook. New phone launches push the previous generation down in price.
October — Jeans, Halloween stock, early Black Friday deals
Retailers now run "early Black Friday" promotions through October. Some are real. Many are the November price arriving a month early with a countdown timer attached.
November — Everything, but especially electronics
The deepest discounts of the year, confirmed by the Adobe figures above. Electronics swing hardest at 30.9% off list price.
December — Post-Christmas clearance, decor, toys
The 26th onward is when holiday-specific stock has no residual value to the retailer. Decor and wrapping take the steepest cuts.
How Deep Does a Discount Have to Be Before You Wait?
Waiting has a cost: you do not have the thing. So set a threshold before you start watching a price, not after.
Use the peak figures in the first table as your benchmark. If you already see furniture at 20% off in July, you have beaten the November floor and there is nothing left to wait for. If you see electronics at 12% off in September, you are leaving roughly two thirds of the available discount on the table.
- Buy now if the current discount sits within a few points of the category's measured peak.
- Wait if the current discount is less than half the peak and the event is under eight weeks away.
- Buy now regardless if the item replaces something broken. Waiting six weeks to save 20% on a fridge is not a saving.
One more rule that costs people money: a percentage off an inflated list price is not a discount. Check what the item sold for three months ago before you trust the badge.
The Sale Events That Are Not Worth Waiting For
Not every date on the calendar earns its reputation.
- Columbus Day. Real for mattresses and outdoor furniture, thin for almost everything else.
- Mid-year events for large appliances. Appliances peaked at 20.2% off in the holiday window, and a summer event rarely improves on the holiday weekend price.
- "Early Black Friday" in October. Sometimes genuine, often the same price you will see in November.
- Anything with a permanent sale badge. If the badge never comes off, it is the price, not a promotion.
Mistakes That Cost Shoppers the Discount
- Buying on the event day when the real markdown arrived a week earlier.
- Comparing against list price instead of the price the item actually held last quarter.
- Forgetting shipping thresholds — a 25% discount plus $15 shipping can lose to a 20% discount with free delivery.
- Ignoring the return window. Holiday purchases often carry extended returns; off-cycle clearance frequently carries none.
- Skipping the code field at checkout because the item is already reduced. Many store promotions stack on top of sale pricing.
How to Stack a Sale Date With a Code
The calendar tells you when the base price drops. A code is what takes it lower still.
- Check the store page first. Pull a verified code before the event, not during it, when pages are slow and stock moves fast.
- Test sitewide codes on sale items. Some exclude reduced stock. Plenty do not.
- Look for an identity discount. Student, military and teacher offers often apply on top of seasonal pricing.
- Plan the big two. Black Friday and Cyber Monday reward a prepared list far more than live browsing.
- Catch the shoulder events. Labor Day and back-to-school sales clear seasonal stock with less competition.
For scale: the National Retail Federation forecasts US retail sales will grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion in 2026. Retailers compete hard for that spending, and competition is what produces the codes.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Black Friday 2026?
Friday, November 27, 2026. Black Friday always falls the day after the fourth Thursday of November, which is Thanksgiving on November 26 that year. Cyber Monday follows on November 30, 2026.
What month has the biggest sales?
November. Adobe recorded peak discounts of 30.9% off list price on electronics and 29.6% on toys during the 2025 holiday season, the deepest measured across the year.
Is Black Friday actually the cheapest time to buy furniture?
No. Furniture bottomed out at 18.8% off during the holiday window — the shallowest of the eight categories Adobe tracked. Clearance cycles in January and July typically serve furniture buyers better.
Do sale prices drop further after Christmas?
For holiday-specific stock, yes. Decorations, wrapping and seasonal gift sets lose their value to the retailer on December 26, so markdowns from that date are usually the deepest of the season.
Can you use a coupon code on top of a sale price?
Often, yes. Some codes exclude reduced items, but many sitewide offers stack on sale pricing. Test the code at checkout before assuming it will not apply.
When should I stop waiting and just buy?
When the discount you can see sits within a few points of the category's measured peak, or when you are replacing something you need now. Waiting six weeks to save 20% on an essential appliance is a false economy.
Related Guides & Resources
- Christmas sales and clothing deals
- Electronics deals and discount codes
- Furniture and home deals
- More savings guides on the GetMePromo blog
Sources: Adobe Analytics 2025 holiday recap · NRF 2026 annual retail sales forecast · NRF winter holiday data · US Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade
